Recently, I heard a pastor say that Jesus is coming back soon and that the world is coming to an end. Jesus may be coming back soon, but not for the reasons that this pastor gave based on his reading of the scriptures. This pastor pointed to the worsening state of the world—threats of war, disease outbreaks, and increases in natural disasters. Although the war on terror, the Ebola outbreak and the waves of natural disasters are distressing signs, most data suggests that the world is a better place to live now more than ever. So, let’s examine the Bible and the data.
Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places.
Matthew 24:7
War
In 2018, our media focuses on the war on terror and North 
Korea. World War I, which had 10 million military deaths and 7.7 million civilian deaths was astronomically worse.1 World War II, which had 24 million military deaths and 49 million civilian deaths tops the war to end all wars.2 The end of World War II also witnessed the actual use of an atomic bomb. Many critics argued that the world was worse off due to the new destructive weapons.3 The Cuban missile crisis in 1962 left American feeling like the end. The media coverage of the cold war in the 80s created hysteria.4 Admittedly, those times were much worse than 2016 when 25,000 people were killed due to terror-related incidents worldwide (0.03% of the total deaths in WWII).5 Things are a lot better than what it was less than 100 years ago.
Famines
Our World in Data is a project from Oxford University. They state that across the entire world, on every continent, people are eating more than ever before.6 In 2013, the average person consumed 2,900 calories a day versus in 1961, when the average person ate only 2,200 calories a day. According to UNICEF, stunted growth, a measurement of malnutrition, declined from one in three to under one in four between 2000 and 2016, globally.7 Yes, there are still famines due to war, natural disaster, social and economic conditions. Yes, 663 million people in the world (10% of the population) don’t have access to clean water, and more needs to be done.8 But things are getting better.
Earthquakes
While it seems like there is an increase in the frequency of earthquakes, scientists point out that it is not so. Researchers looked at historical data of earthquakes measuring a magnitude of 8 or greater from 1900 to the present and concluded that the global frequency of earthquakes is not higher today.9 British Geological Survey states that more people are living in earthquake zones and that global communication has increased the awareness of earthquakes.10 Hurricane is another story as many scientist blame human-made global warming.11 And depending which states you live in (red or blue), you have your own beliefs on this. I’m not even going to get into it here.
And great earthquakes shall be in divers places, and famines, and pestilences; and fearful sights and great signs shall there be from heaven.
Luke 21:11
Pestilences = diseases
While inequality in healthcare still exists in the world, this inequality has been decreasing. Since 1900, the global life expectancy has doubled to 70 years.12 In 18th-century Sweden, every third child died. In 19th-century Germany, every second child died. Global child mortality rate fell from 18% in 1960 to 4% in 2015.13 In rich countries, child mortality rate is less than 1%. Surely, it was much worse in 1347 to 1351, when 30 – 60% of Eurasia’s population (75 – 200 million deaths) died due to The Black Death pandemic.14 This was followed by the Great Plague of London where 100,000 people (almost 25% of London’s population) died within 18 months.15 Those people really thought this was the second coming of Christ.
And because lawlessness will be increased, the love of many will grow cold.
Matthew 24:12
Homicide
You guessed it. Homicide rates are down and have been low in the past 50 years.16 In fact, half the world’s 450,000 homicides are in just 20 nations in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. In some rich countries, violent crimes are at or near the all-time lows.17
Decrease in Christianity
Perhaps “the love of many will grow cold” can be interpreted 
as the decreasing number of Christians around the world. One researcher showed that the declining average religiousness in the USA was similar to the secularization in other countries.18 However, recent research shows that “intense religion—strong affiliation, very frequent practice, literalism, and evangelicalism—is persistent, and in fact, only moderate religion is on the decline in the United States.”19 The pew research states that the major factor for the decline in worldwide Christianity is that Muslims will outnumber Christian birth by 2035.20 So, if you want to help increase Christianity worldwide, then just have more babies.
And this gospel of the kingdom will be preached in the whole world as a testimony to all nations, and then the end will come.
Matthew 24:14
When the whole world hears
This may actually come true. In 2018, almost 5 billion people will have a cell phone.21 An Israeli startup company is planning on launching satellites that will provide Wi-Fi access to the entire world.22 Perhaps the most crucial effort now should be to reach the truly isolated communities in the Amazon jungle or the arctic north and translate the Bible into their dialect.
Even so, when you see all these things, you know that it is near, right at the door.
Matthew 24:33
Here is the problem. Jesus states “when you see ALL these things.” ALL is not what we see right now. But I could be entirely wrong.
The world is getting better. Poverty, literacy, freedom, and education rates are all improving.23 The world is a much better place than it was a century ago. It is truly an irony that education is improving, but there is increased ignorance about the state of the world. “More than 9 out of 10 people do not think that the world is getting better.”24 Researchers partly blame the media for this knowledge gap. The media constantly bombards us with what is wrong with the world instead of informing the viewers of the facts. Another part of the reason for our perceived “declinism” can also be a psychological trick of our minds where we tend to recall our younger years more favorably. Regardless of the reason, the many aspects of this world are improving.25
But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.
Matthew 24:36
But, as Jesus states, we will never know the day or the hour of His second coming. He may be coming soon like this pastor states. The increasing threat of nuclear attack, multi-drug resistance and natural disasters are real. But based on current data, the pastor’s reasons just aren’t backed up by facts.
- World War I https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I
- World War II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II
- By the Bomb’s Early Light by Paul Boyer
- The Rise of Nuclear Fear-How We Learned to Fear the Radiation https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/guest-blog/the-rise-of-nuclear-fear-how-we-learned-to-fear-the-bomb/
- Number of casualties due to terrorism worldwide between 2006 and 2016 https://www.statista.com/statistics/202871/number-of-fatalities-by-terrorist-attacks-worldwide/
- Food per Person https://ourworldindata.org/food-per-person
- Malnutrition https://data.unicef.org/topic/nutrition/malnutrition/#
- https://my.charitywater.org/global-water-crisis
- Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased http://www.pnas.org/content/109/3/717.full?sid=e906ad30-c20a-41fb-b383-16aa538d39fe
- Is Earthquake Activity Increasing?
http://www.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk/news/EQ_increase.html - Global Warming and Hurricanes
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/
- Life expectancy
https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy
- Child Mortality
https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality
- Black Death
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death
- Great plague of London
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_London
- Homicides
https://ourworldindata.org/homicides
- Why violent crime is plummeting in the rich world?
https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530073-200-why-violent-crime-is-plummeting-in-the-rich-world/
- Is the United States a Counterexample to the Secularization Thesis?
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/684202
- The Persistent and Exceptional Intensity of American Religion: A Response to Recent Research
https://www.sociologicalscience.com/articles-v4-28-686/
- The changing global religious landscape http://www.pewforum.org/2017/04/05/the-changing-global-religious-landscape/
- Forecast of mobile phone unsers worldwide
https://www.statista.com/statistics/274774/forecast-of-mobile-phone-users-worldwide/
- Can Skifi really give the entire world free internet? https://www.inverse.com/article/12115-can-skyfi-really-give-the-entire-world-free-internet
- Why The World Is Getting Better And Why Hardly Anyone Knows It
https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevedenning/2017/11/30/why-the-world-is-getting-better-why-hardly-anyone-knows-it/#1657f8337826
- Is the world really better than ever? The New Optimists https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/jul/28/is-the-world-really-better-than-ever-the-new-optimists
- Declinism: Is the world actually getting worse? https://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2015/jan/16/declinism-is-the-world-actually-getting-worse